EOSDA’s Harvesting Hope Initiative: Marginal Notes

The Origins Of The Initiative

The “Harvesting Hope” initiative by EOS Data Analytics has been a very personal endeavor for our team. We’ve been witnessing how the ongoing war in Ukraine has brought unprecedented challenges to the country in general and to the agricultural sector in particular, affecting farmers’ livelihoods and the country’s food security. So we have been planning to highlight these challenges and bring global attention to the plight of Ukrainian farmers for some time already.

Yet from the very start, it was clear that the company’s contribution should be leveraging our expertise in satellite data analysis to analyze and forecast the state of agriculture in Ukraine for 2024. This approach would add a unique angle to the picture of the agricultural crisis and help farmers better foresee possible agricultural risks.

Once the scientific team came up with the first research results, the marketing team engaged in several brainstorming sessions to determine the best format for presenting their information. We wanted to ensure that the data we presented was not only accurate but also accessible and easy to read. So, we decided to create an interactive map, allowing people interested in the issue to visualize and understand the state of the agricultural landscape in Ukraine better.

The Impact Of War On Ukraine’s Agriculture

In addition to analytics, we decided to show the devastating impact the war has had on Ukraine and its agricultural sector.

Expectedly, the war drastically reduced crop yields and affected the livelihoods of millions of farmers. In 2021, Ukraine experienced a record harvest of 100 million tons (of the main agricultural crops: winter wheat, maize, barley, soybean, and sunflower). However, the onset of war in 2022 led to a dramatic decline in agricultural output, with the total harvest of the same crops plummeting to 56 million tons, according to the calculations of our scientists.

Despite these challenges, Ukrainian farmers showed remarkable resilience. By 2023, through strategic crop adjustments and partial recovery efforts, the total harvest rebounded to 70 million tons. Our scenario-based forecasts for 2024 suggest that, if the sowing area remains the same, overall yields may slightly decrease compared to 2023 due to unfavorable weather conditions.

It is heartwarming for all of us to see that despite the significant decrease in the area of crops, the increase in logistics costs, and the decreased profitability of growing the main agricultural crops, Ukraine remains one of the key producers and exporters of agricultural products in the world.

Oleksii Kryvobok

Chief Science Expert at EOS Data Analytics

The resilience of Ukrainian farmers is undoubtedly extraordinary, but the war’s impact extends beyond crop yields. The disruption of transportation routes, especially through the Black Sea, has severely hampered Ukraine’s ability to export its agricultural products.

This has not only affected the country’s economy but also created ripples in the global food market, leading to supply chain disruptions and increased food prices. As Ukrainians, we don’t need research and data to see that — just a glance at our wallets is enough. But you will find sources supporting these statements at the bottom of the Harvesting Hope page.

What Data Science Tells Us About Ukrainian Agriculture

The “Harvesting Hope” initiative leverages advanced scientific methodologies to provide accurate forecasts and actionable insights for Ukrainian agriculture. The core of our approach involves scenario analysis, machine learning, and the integration of satellite data. This comprehensive method allows us to predict crop yields and assess agricultural conditions with a high degree of accuracy, even amidst the uncertainties of war.

Scenario analysis is a critical component of our forecasting model. This technique involves categorizing all possible events into several groups and determining a logical sequence of consequences for each group. By using weather forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we can predict meteorological conditions and their impact on crop yields up to six months in advance. This method helps us create robust and reliable forecasts, essential for planning and decision-making in the agricultural sector.

For the territory of Ukraine, precipitation is the primary limiting factor for plant development, while temperature conditions across the country are not critical.

Oleksii Kryvobok

Chief Science Expert at EOS Data Analytics

One of the unique insights from our scientific research is the continued increase in soybean planting areas. Despite the war, the high value of soybeans and their soil enrichment benefits have led to a 50% increase in planting areas compared to 2021 ^{Sowing campaign 2021-2022 online. Latyfundist.com.}. Soybeans not only fetch a higher market price but also improve soil health by fixing nitrogen, making them an economically and environmentally beneficial crop.

Our forecasts for 2024 indicate a potential decrease in the gross harvest of winter wheat and barley by 660 thousand tons and 690 thousand tons compared to 2023. This decline is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions. Similar dynamics are noticeable with corn, sunflower, and soybean yields. The final forecast for these crops will be done at the end of July.

Winter wheat. Table of gross harvests, yields, and areas throughout the territory of Ukraine in 2023-2024 (as of May 30, 2024)

Barley. Table of gross harvests, yields, and areas throughout the territory of Ukraine in 2023-2024 (as of May 30, 2024)

Corn. Table of gross harvests, yields, and areas throughout the territory of Ukraine in 2023-2024 (as of May 30, 2024)

Sunflower. Table of gross harvests, yields, and areas throughout the territory of Ukraine in 2023-2024 (as of May 30, 2024)

Soybeans. Table of gross harvests, yields, and areas throughout the territory of Ukraine in 2023-2024 (as of May 30, 2024)

While our scientific approach focuses on predicting yields and gross harvests of the main crops in Ukraine, our satellite data analytics are capable of providing insights that help farmers make informed decisions. By seeing weather forecasts, the historical data on the productivity of their fields and the fields in the vicinity, and graphs of soil moisture levels and NDVI dynamics, farmers can better prepare for the growing season, optimize resource use, and enhance crop management practices.

We believe a proactive approach can be vital in mitigating the adverse effects of the war and ensuring sustainable agricultural productivity.

The Global Scale Of The Crisis

On the Harvesting Hope page, we also wanted to show the implications that the agricultural challenges faced by Ukraine have for global food security. Ukraine has long been a key player in the global food market, particularly in the export of grains and oil seeds. The disruption caused by the war has not only affected Ukraine’s domestic food supply but also had a ripple effect on global food prices and availability.

Before the war, Ukraine was a major exporter of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. The blockade of Black Sea ports mentioned above and other logistical challenges have significantly reduced export capacities. This has led to a decrease in the global supply of these essential commodities, contributing to a surge in food prices worldwide.

We believe the international community must recognize the critical role that Ukrainian agriculture plays in global food security and provide the necessary support to restore its export capabilities.

The war has not only affected Ukraine’s agriculture but has also sent shockwaves through the global food market, impacting food prices and supply chains worldwide.

Yurii Protsenko

Agronomist at EOS Data Analytics

There’s also the humanitarian aspect of the crisis. With reduced agricultural output, there is a risk of food shortages in both Ukraine and other countries dependent on its exports. Hence Ukraine’s efforts to unblock sea routes and financial and technical assistance to Ukrainian farmers have been and will remain crucial in stabilizing the global food market.

Additionally, the war has impacted the supply and cost of essential agricultural inputs like fertilizers. Many Ukrainian farmers have struggled to obtain these inputs due to disrupted supply chains and increased prices. This has further affected crop yields and the overall productivity of the agricultural sector. Addressing these supply chain issues and ensuring that farmers have access to affordable inputs is crucial for maintaining global food security.

From Data To Action

No matter how insightful our data or analytics are, it’s not enough to address the challenges Ukrainian farmers face today. Within this initiative, our contribution is free access to EOSDA Crop Monitoring, an online satellite-based precision agriculture platform for field monitoring. With it, farmers can enhance their agricultural practices, improve their resource management, and generally make more informed decisions regarding their crops thanks to features like crop health monitoring, soil conditions assessment, and weather pattern prediction.

With the harvesting season just around the corner, EOSDA Crop Monitoring becomes especially useful for farmers wanting to see the state of their crops and plan their harvesting activities. I recommend not hesitating with this offer and getting free access to EOSDA Crop Monitoring already.

Yurii Protsenko

Agronomist at EOS Data Analytics

International aid has also played a significant role in stabilizing the agricultural sector. Financial assistance, technical support, and humanitarian aid have been instrumental in helping farmers cope with the disruptions caused by the war. Organizations worldwide have stepped in to provide resources and support, ensuring that Ukraine’s agriculture can continue to function and contribute to global food security.

Hence we hope the release of this initiative will help increase international support for Ukraine’s agricultural sector and ensure the sustainability of agricultural practices.

Bottom Line: The Crisis Is Far From Over

Ukrainian farmers have been showing extraordinary resilience and determination during the unprecedented challenges caused by the war.

Although they are supported by the collaborative efforts of local business entities, international organizations, and technological innovations, the war is not over yet. Global support is still crucial in ensuring that Ukrainian agriculture can recover and thrive, contributing to global food security.

And the EOS Data Analytics team will continue driving positive change in the industry through technologies, data-driven insights, and initiatives like Harvesting Hope.