Harvesting Hope: Measuring The Effect Of War On Ukraine’s Agriculture

Delve into the resilience and revival of the agriculture of Ukraine, which is facing the challenges of war, with detailed satellite insights from EOS Data Analytics.

Mapping for Growth

Explore
Our Map

Get an overview of Ukraine’s agriculture, including 2024 forecasts, crafted by our science team.

Understand
Global Impact

Find out about the role of Ukraine's agriculture in global sustainability and food security.

Discover
EOSDA’s Role

Learn how EOS Data Analytics uses remote sensing to promote precision agriculture in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Agricultural Crisis On A Map

In 2021, Ukraine celebrated a record harvest of 100 million tons. The onset of full-scale war and adverse weather in in 2022 diminished crop yields, decreasing the harvest to 56 million tons.

By 2023, through strategic crop adjustments and partial recovery, the total harvest rebounded to 70 million tons.

In 2024, should the sowing area remain the same, our scenario-based forecasts reveal that overall yields will be slightly lower due to presumably less favorable weather conditions than in the previous year.

Explore Ukraine’s Agriculture By Region, Crop, And Year

A 2024 map of Ukraine

Click on the regions to see more detailed data on its state of agriculture.
Select a region
  • Poltava Region
  • Sumy Region
  • Dnipropetrovsk Region
  • Cherkasy Region
  • Kirovohrad Region
  • Mykolaiv Region
  • Odesa Region
  • Zhytomyr Region
  • Vinnytsia Region
  • Kyiv Region
  • Chernihiv Region
  • Rivne Region
  • Volyn Region
  • Ternopil Region
  • Khmelnytskyi Region
  • Chernivtsi Region
  • Lviv Region
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Region
  • Zakarpattia Region
  • Kharkiv Region
  • Donetsk Region
  • Zaporizhzhia Region
  • Kherson Region
  • Luhansk Region
  • Crimea
  • Kharkiv Region Occupied
  • Luhansk Region Occupied
  • Donetsk Region Occupied
  • Zaporizhzhia Region Occupied
  • Kherson Region Occupied
Kharkiv Region
Poltava Region
Sumy Region
Dnipropetrovsk Region
Zaporizhzhia Region
Kherson Region
Crimea
Kirovohrad Region
Cherkasy Region
Vinnytsia Region
Chernihiv Region
Mykolaiv Region
Odesa Region
Zhytomyr Region
Chernivtsi Region
Ivano-Frankivsk Region
Zakarpattia Region
Lviv Region
Volyn Region
Rivne Region
Ternopil Region
Khmelnytskyi Region
Kyiv Region
Luhansk Region
Donetsk Region

Color gradient: Dark to light — reflecting higher to lower values

0255075100
Areas temporarily occupied by russia
Approx. frontline boundary as of March 2024
Disclaimer: Visualization of the current boundaries of the temporarily occupied territories in Ukraine may not be accurate and should be used for guidance only. Data on the state of agriculture in these territories is unavailable due to wartime actions.

Ukraine’s Agricultural Crisis On A Global Scale

Ukraine’s agricultural sector has long been a cornerstone of global food stability. However, the full-scale war initiated by Russia has brought unforeseen challenges, deeply affecting food security around the world.

seaport with cranes

Transportation and Exports

Prior to the war, the majority of Ukraine's grain was exported through the Black Sea, with significant volumes passing through strategic ports like Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi.

The war has severely disrupted these routes, causing a drastic decline in exports.

The reduced export capacity has not only impacted Ukraine's economy but has also sent shockwaves through the global food market.

stock growth indicators layered on wheat

Global Food Costs

The war has impacted the supply and cost of natural gas to Europe, which caused major companies to curtail production of nitrogen fertilizers.

As production slowed, fertilizer prices rose sharply, creating a cascading effect on food costs worldwide.

fields by the hill in late summer

Shortage of Labor

The war also impacted the labor force in the agricultural sector across Europe.

Many Ukrainian workers, who are essential to farming operations in various European countries, were unable to return to their jobs abroad due to the war.

This shortage of labor further exacerbated the challenges in the agricultural sector.

Multiple reports and investigations have already revealed the scale of damage inflicted by Russia on Ukraine’s agriculture by 2024.

Direct War Impact

The war has disrupted planting on an estimated 25% of Ukraine’s arable land. [13]

Landmine Threat

It’s critical to demine 500,000 ha of land with de-occupied territories. [14]

Land Fund Damage

The amount of damages inflicted by russia on the land fund and agro-industrial complex of Ukraine is $4.3bln.[15]

Resilience

Ukraine exports 70% of its agriproducts, and this export ensures global food security.[14]

Food Security

A complete loss of Ukraine’s agricultural production could lead to up to 89% global loss in sunflower oil and 85% in maize.[16]

A Long Way Forward

Despite affordable lending programs, current circumstances give no room for agrarian prosperity.[14]

2023 Exceeds Expectations

The yield outlook for summer 2023 crops exceeds the 5-year average by more than 10%.[17]

2024 Might Be Worse

USAID’s agroproduction estimate for the 2023/24 marketing year is expected to be 88.5% of 2022/23 year.[18]

2025 Seems Optimistic

In 2025, analysts expect food producers to get higher profits that will allow more than cover their expenses.[19]

The ripple effect of the crisis in agriculture caused logistics troubles, a decrease in exports, and, finally, a spike in food prices around the world.

UKRAINE
28%

The decrease in Ukraine’s wheat exports within one year following the onset of the full-scale war.[22]

$34.25 billion

The total agricultural losses associated with the war in Ukraine as of March 2023.[23]

4M metric tons

The amount of grain Russia stole since the beginning of the full-scale invasion as of May 2023.[24]

WORLD
19.5%

The increase in average food prices in the EU as of February 2023 compared to February 2022.[25]

$160

The spike increase in the export cost of a ton of Ukrainian grains (up from $40).[26]

50 km

The lengths of truck lines at Ukrainian border crossings when sea export routes were unavailable.[27]

View the top ten countries that, having been reliant on Ukrainian grain before the war, actively engaged with the Black Sea Grain Initiative from July 2022 to July 2023.

Click on a country to learn more about its agricultural ties with Ukraine.

After the conclusion of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine has been able to diminish the influence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. This strategic shift has enabled Ukraine to export agricultural goods by sea independently, without the need for third-party agreements.

Discover EOS Data Analytics’ Solutions To Help Ukraine’s Agriculture

Some analysts predict that by 2025, Ukrainian agrarians could start returning to pre-war production levels. Yet achieving this milestone is impossible without further farming digitalization. Here’s what EOS Data Analytics offers to farmers and agribusinesses in Ukraine and around the world.

Precision Crop Monitoring

Unlock insights on crop health, weather patterns, and more with EOSDA Crop Monitoring. Optimize your agricultural practices for maximum efficiency.

Tailored Agricultural Solutions

Enhance your crop management with our custom solutions like Yield Prediction and Harvest Monitoring. Make informed decisions for better yields.

Integration Made Easy

Elevate your business with our API and White Label solutions. Seamlessly integrate cutting-edge remote sensing technology into your operations.

In 2024, Ukrainian farmers are eligible to use EOSDA Crop Monitoring for free for 3 months to analyze up to 500 ha of their fields. Get in touch with us to request free access to our platform.

Learn more about EOSDA’s role in supporting Ukraine’s agriculture.

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True change happens one step at a time, and our journey begins with impactful strides in Ukraine.

References

  1. Data. Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre. United Nations.

    Online source
  2. Elisabeth Braw (2022, June 29). Why Does China Own So Much of Ukraine? Wall Street Journal.

    Online source
  3. Oleksandr Shumilin (2023, July 19). 60,000 tonnes of agricultural products destroyed by Russian missiles were to be sent to China – Zelenskyy.

    Online source
  4. (2023, April 4). Spain, first destination for Ukrainian agri-food stuffs. Ministerie van Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit.

    Online source
  5. Rosemary Griffin (2023, March 18). Turkey, Ukraine, UN say Black Sea grain deal extended. S&P Global.

    Online source
  6. (2023, April 28). Agrarian associations of Italy will help revive agriculture in Ukraine, Tridge.

    Online source
  7. (2023, April 15). The Netherlands will invest 100 million euros to help Ukrainian farmers and agricultural companies. NL Times.

    Online source
  8. Michaël Tanchum (2023, July 25). The Russia-Ukraine war forces Egypt to face the need to feed itself: Infrastructure, international partnerships, and agritech can provide the solutions. Middle East Institute.

    Online source
  9. Reaz Ahmad (2022, May 5). Sanctions on Russia, Belarus: Bangladesh’s potash import line disrupted. Dhaka Tribune.

    Online source
  10. Amit Ashkenazy, Galit Cohen (2023, December 3). Ensuring the Resilience of Food Supply Chains in Israel During Emergencies. The Institute for National Security Studies.

    Online source
  11. Ndeye Yacine Barry, Khadim Dia, Aïssatou Ndoye, and Racine Ly (2023, April). Wheat Production Outlook in Tunisia amid the Ukraine Crisis. Academiya 2063.

    Official report
  12. (2023, July 8). Joint Declaration by Ukraine and the Portuguese Republic. Official website of the President of Ukraine.

    Online source
  13. Rod Bain (2023, January 10). Outlook for Ukraine Agriculture in 2023. U.S. Department of Agriculture.

    Online source
  14. (2023, December 10). An Industry That Feeds the World: What Has 2023 Become for Ukrainian Agriculture? Ukraine World.

    Online source
  15. (2022, July). Draft Ukraine Recovery Plan. The National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of the War.

    Official report
  16. Alena Kuzub. How the annihilation of Ukraine’s agricultural production affects the world, according to a new network model. Northeastern Global News.

    Online source
  17. Joint Research Center (2023, Sept 11). Good yield outlook for summer crops, but reduced production of grain maize in Ukraine. EU Science Hub.

    Online source
  18. (2023, June 9). Agriculture resilience initiative - Ukraine, Update #30. USAID.

    Official report
  19. (2023, May). Agricultural Outlook Ukraine - 2030 Cereals and oilseeds markets projections: 2023 - end of the war assumption. Center for Food and Land Use Research at Kyiv School of Economics.

    Official report
  20. Aine Quinn, Agnieszka de Sousa (2023, December 21). Ukraine’s Lost Crops: An 8 Million-Ton Black Hole in World Stats. Bloomberg.

    Online source
  21. Eugenia Drozdova, Nadia Kelm (November 22, 2023). Harvest from the Occupied Territories. Texty.org.ua

    Online source
  22. Joseph Glauber (2023, March 3, 2023). Ukraine one year later: Impacts on global food security. Instituto Interamericano De Cooperación Para La Agricultura.

    Online source
  23. Kyiv School of Economics, Government of Ukraine (Nov 10, 2022). Agriculture War Losses Review Ukraine, Rapid Losses Assessment Issue 2. ReliefWeb.

    Official report
  24. (May 25, 2023). Russia stole about 4 million tons of grain from Ukraine – Ukrainian Grain Association. Ukrainska Pravda.

    Online source
  25. (March, 2023). Short-Term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2023. European Commision.

    Official report
  26. Jo Harper (June 12, 2022). Ukraine struggles to get its wheat to the world. Deutsche Welle.

    Online source
  27. Iryna Kosse (November 7, 2022). New momentum for development of the road freight between Ukraine and Slovakia: what approach should be taken? GLOBSEC.

    Online source